Forecasting Terrorism Research-Analysis Paper
ORDER # | 100170 |
PAPER TYPE | RESEARCH PAPER |
WRITING LEVEL | UNDERGRADUATE |
WRITING STYLE | CHICAGO |
# OF SOURCES | 7 |
# OF PAGES & WORD COUNT | 6 ≈ 1650 WORDS |
About Forecasting Terrorism Research-Analysis Paper: This assignment is a research-analysis paper of approximately 1500 words +/- 10%. It tests the assimilation of key themes on the topic of forecasting terrorism, without overly demanding in-depth forecasting at the level of a trained analyst or utilizing full-scale Khalsa or ASAP methodology. Apply knowledge from the study of terrorist group motivations/psychology, terrorist-CBRN case studies/precedents (terrorist modus operandus for seeking, producing and delivering CBRN agents), and aspects of specific CBRN agents to the development of collections indicators in a forecasting methodology for a hypothetical threat scenario. Describe how you would incorporate the use of collections indicators (ideally from the TIIE) in a forecasting methodology applied to the scenario. • Focus/Thesis: addressing the essay question and articulating a clear hypothesis. No essay can be complete without a thesis statement telling the reader what the key purpose and argument of the paper is. A paper without a clear thesis will automatically be downgraded one letter grade. Tip: use the essay question itself as a starting point when developing your thesis statement. • Content/Subject Knowledge: demonstrating deep subject knowledge and understanding of the key themes from course readings and additional relevant outside material. As you make an overall “predictive assessment” on the likely terrorist attack scenario, you MUST weave in key course themes from texts and use credible external sources (both cited appropriately in Chicago format) to back up your argument and explain the forecasting methodology you used. No assertion you make can stand without a logical defense of some sort: use evidence from the class and the scholarly body of counterterrorism and WMD theory to support your argument. Failure to demonstrate knowledge of course themes and objectives will automatically result in the essay being downgraded one letter grade. A minimum of seven credible sources on terrorism analysis (course materials and external scholarly sources) must be cited in the essay. • Critical Thinking Skills: strategic approach to problem-solving, well-argued ideas and conclusions that support the thesis/essay question, demonstration of logical and fact-based reasoning, demonstrating well-planned research and usage of sources. Your original analysis is key here. Excessive quotes and the absence of your own original analysis is grounds for a letter grade score reduction. Forecasting Terrorism Research-Analysis Paper guidance follows: Title: ‘Al Qa’ida’s next major domestic attack on the United States’ • Components: The paper concerns the creation/forecast of a partially intuition-based attack scenario, based on scant intelligence, or ‘dots’ in the form of a theoretical Intelligence intercept (below). You fill in the “gaps” with logical assertions backed up from your research and via your understanding of course materials. A predetermined parameter, in this case, is that before this intercept, another broad intelligence intercept was received indicating a major domestic terrorist attack would occur against the US within three-to-nine months (for your assignment, write it as if today is June 15, 20XX). These two items are the “intelligence available.” You must analyze all the provided “raw intelligence” and apply your knowledge to create a basic attack scenario around these two pieces of intelligence on the impending, potential future attack. In your description of how you assess the attack will unfold (25% of the essay), try to address factors such as weapons and attack methods, time frame, target, logistics/travel, expected casualties, etc. The other 75% of the paper should provide a discussion of WHY you think the attack will go along those lines. Use cited references to course materials and research that backs up your assessed attack forecast. Bring in the use of collections indicators and a forecasting methodology as well. Transcript of Intercept: (Arabic, reproduced in phonetic Latin alphabet). Dots represent breaks in intercept. HIJOOM……DYMES SQUARE……WAHAD OH TELATEEN……RA……AL SINEH (RAS EL SINEH?)……….KHAMESS IQWAN…AFGHAN…………………………….JAMAYAT SAFAR LEBNANIAH.…GHARE MOOSTAHMELLEH WA MA’ASRUKAH……….………ISMAH MESEHIEH………..TE’SHIRAT…EL…CONSUL…EL AMERICIEH……….CASABLANCA……… ………………………ISLAMABAD…….……BARIS………..…GENNEDY…………..…BEIT AMEEN ……BROKLIN………..MEEYET LITTER SARIN…………SAYYARAT INSA’AF TETTER HERAK……..JUMMA………..MEN TASSAF EL LAYLEH….. ZAMAMEER………………DOW TENBEEHEE…….HALLET SAKTAH ELBIEH…TEHREEK….EL HAROOB……….…. LAGUARDIA……………..…..……………….DORONTO……….…LONDONNE……….SLAMABAD ..…..MUMKIN…..MISHKELLEH…SHURTA……….OULA..…….AMIN.………………AMERICIAH………. ISA’AF……QUMBLEH…KHAMES SHUHADA’A…… Translation (English) Note: do NOT place this raw intelligence intercept in the body of your essay. Assume the reader (me) is familiar with the raw intelligence above as you craft the essay. Do not, however, assume the reader is familiar with the key course themes and/or Khalsa/ASAP methodologies. Do not use Wikipedia or other unreliable websites that are clearly not reviewed for content or accuracy. • Analysis is critical: While your scenario can be innovative and original, ALL your assessments/judgments should be backed up with relevant cited evidence and clear logic—you MUST demonstrate your methodology and link it back to themes and/or objectives in a coherent way. Remember the golden rule: “answer the essay question (or address the task) specifically and directly.” |