Forecasting Terrorism Research-Analysis Paper

Apply knowledge from the study of terrorist group motivations/psychology, terrorist-CBRN case studies/precedents (terrorist modus operandus for seeking, producing and delivering CBRN agents), and aspects of specific CBRN agents to the development of collections indicators in a forecasting methodology for a hypothetical threat scenario.

Describe how you would incorporate the use of collections indicators (ideally from the TIIE) in a forecasting methodology applied to the scenario.

• Focus/Thesis: addressing the essay question and articulating a clear hypothesis. No essay can be complete without a thesis statement telling the reader what the key purpose and argument of the paper is. A paper without a clear thesis will automatically be downgraded one letter grade. Tip: use the essay question itself as a starting point when developing your thesis statement.

• Content/Subject Knowledge: demonstrating deep subject knowledge and understanding of the key themes from course readings and additional relevant outside material. As you make an overall “predictive assessment” on the likely terrorist attack scenario, you MUST weave in key course themes from texts and use credible external sources (both cited appropriately in Chicago format) to back up your argument and explain the forecasting methodology you used. No assertion you make can stand without a logical defense of some sort: use evidence from the class and the scholarly body of counterterrorism and WMD theory to support your argument. Failure to demonstrate knowledge of course themes and objectives will automatically result in the essay being downgraded one letter grade. A minimum of seven credible sources on terrorism analysis (course materials and external scholarly sources) must be cited in the essay.
A minimum of five direct references to key course themes and conclusions must also be cited.
A minimum of ten substantive foot/endnotes is necessary to demonstrate your knowledge of key course themes.

• Critical Thinking Skills: strategic approach to problem-solving, well-argued ideas and conclusions that support the thesis/essay question, demonstration of logical and fact-based reasoning, demonstrating well-planned research and usage of sources. Your original analysis is key here. Excessive quotes and the absence of your own original analysis is grounds for a letter grade score reduction.
• Organization of Ideas/Format: demonstration of a logical progression that effectively argues the thesis, clearly organized topic sentences and ideas, articulated assumptions, appropriate introduction, paragraphs, conclusions, and citations.
• Writing Conventions: following the Chicago style guide and accepted rules of grammar and style.

Forecasting Terrorism Research-Analysis Paper guidance follows:

Title: ‘Al Qa’ida’s next major domestic attack on the United States’

• Components: The paper concerns the creation/forecast of a partially intuition-based attack scenario, based on scant intelligence, or ‘dots’ in the form of a theoretical Intelligence intercept (below). You fill in the “gaps” with logical assertions backed up from your research and via your understanding of course materials. A predetermined parameter, in this case, is that before this intercept, another broad intelligence intercept was received indicating a major domestic terrorist attack would occur against the US within three-to-nine months (for your assignment, write it as if today is June 15, 20XX). These two items are the “intelligence available.” You must analyze all the provided “raw intelligence” and apply your knowledge to create a basic attack scenario around these two pieces of intelligence on the impending, potential future attack. In your description of how you assess the attack will unfold (25% of the essay), try to address factors such as weapons and attack methods, time frame, target, logistics/travel, expected casualties, etc. The other 75% of the paper should provide a discussion of WHY you think the attack will go along those lines. Use cited references to course materials and research that backs up your assessed attack forecast. Bring in the use of collections indicators and a forecasting methodology as well.
An assertion not backed up with evidence and/or reasoning is just an opinion–and that is insufficient. While the scenario you paint is fictitious, remember that the goal is for you to demonstrate understanding of key themes (cited) and incorporate a few scholarly research works on terrorism and WMD. You should bear in mind when formulating the essay the learning objective and tasks above.

Transcript of Intercept:
Fragmented intelligence from a senior al-Qaida member was intercepted. He is unaware of the interception. No further indicators or intelligence has been forthcoming, except that it is known that there is an impending attack on the US mainland within 3 to 9 months, and that this intercepted intelligence is not disinformation and is considered credible:

(Arabic, reproduced in phonetic Latin alphabet). Dots represent breaks in intercept.

HIJOOM……DYMES SQUARE……WAHAD OH TELATEEN……RA……AL SINEH (RAS EL SINEH?)……….KHAMESS IQWAN…AFGHAN…………………………….JAMAYAT SAFAR LEBNANIAH.…GHARE MOOSTAHMELLEH WA MA’ASRUKAH……….………ISMAH MESEHIEH………..TE’SHIRAT…EL…CONSUL…EL AMERICIEH……….CASABLANCA……… ………………………ISLAMABAD…….……BARIS………..…GENNEDY…………..…BEIT AMEEN ……BROKLIN………..MEEYET LITTER SARIN…………SAYYARAT INSA’AF TETTER HERAK……..JUMMA………..MEN TASSAF EL LAYLEH….. ZAMAMEER………………DOW TENBEEHEE…….HALLET SAKTAH ELBIEH…TEHREEK….EL HAROOB……….…. LAGUARDIA……………..…..……………….DORONTO……….…LONDONNE……….SLAMABAD ..…..MUMKIN…..MISHKELLEH…SHURTA……….OULA..…….AMIN.………………AMERICIAH………. ISA’AF……QUMBLEH…KHAMES SHUHADA’A……

Translation (English)
STRIKE …….. TIMES SQUARE ………. THIRTY-FIRST …… NEW YEAR’S EVE (?) ………… FIVE BROTHERS …….. AFGHAN ………. LEBANESE PASSPORTS STOLEN BLANKS …… CHRISTIAN NAMES ……….. VISAS … AMERICAN CONSULATE CASABLANCA……. .….. ISLAMABAD ….. PARIS ……. KENNEDY …… SAFE HOUSE ….… BROOKLYN …… 100 LITRES SARIN………… MOVING AMBULANCE ………. CROWD …… MIDNIGHT ……….. HORNS …….. FLASHING LIGHTS …… HEART ATTACK CASE …… ESCAPE ROUTE ……… LA GUARDIA ……..… TORONTO ………. LONDON ….. ISLAMABAD …… MAYBE ……. PROBLEM… AMERICAN POLICE OR SECURITY …… AMBULANCE … BOMB ……. FIVE MARTYRS……

Note: do NOT place this raw intelligence intercept in the body of your essay. Assume the reader (me) is familiar with the raw intelligence above as you craft the essay. Do not, however, assume the reader is familiar with the key course themes and/or Khalsa/ASAP methodologies.

Do not use Wikipedia or other unreliable websites that are clearly not reviewed for content or accuracy.
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• Analysis is critical: While your scenario can be innovative and original, ALL your assessments/judgments should be backed up with relevant cited evidence and clear logic—you MUST demonstrate your methodology and link it back to themes and/or objectives in a coherent way.
The two pieces of “intelligence” above are your starting point: fill in the gaps of your threat scenario with plausible assertions argued and supported (cited) with external research, course materials and logical explanation. You MUST explain WHY you assess the scenario will occur, Example: if you assert al Qaida will use a certain tactic, you must show a linkage to research that backs this up and/or you explain why you assess al Qaida would use a different method.

Remember the golden rule: “answer the essay question (or address the task) specifically and directly.”